Next-Gen Hurricane Forecasting & How Satellite Tech Is Transforming Storm Prediction

Susan Wise: Hi, and welcome to Stars Launch Pod—Space, Technology, and Research Sciences—brought to you by StarSciences.org, where we connect, collaborate, and accelerate. I’m your host, Susan Wise, and joining us in the Launch Pod today is Dan Harkins. He builds spacecraft, and apparently he can control the weather. Is that right?

Dan Harkins: Not exactly. That’s a little bit of hyperbole. I don’t control the weather yet, but I will control the most advanced forecasts.

Susan Wise: All right. You are COO of Tropical Weather Analytics, right?

Dan Harkins: Oh yes—that’s Chief Optimistic Officer.

Susan Wise:

Dan Harkins: Not so much optimistic lately, because climate change is going in the wrong direction—but we’ll go with that.

Susan Wise: Okay, tell us more about what you do and what’s happening.

Dan Harkins: I’m on the technology and business side. We are developing hurricane hunter satellites. We’ve already been in space—this is the culmination of almost two million dollars over 10 years, and then five years on the Space Station for us to develop the technology.

The hurricane hunter satellites launch next year, and these will provide 12-hour earlier and two-times-more-accurate hurricane forecasts. They also collect 3D wind and cloud data to improve both routine and extreme weather forecasts. So we’re not just hurricanes anymore. A lot of people think, “Well, weather’s free, so why would I want to pay for that?”

But there is practical application. Having better and earlier forecasts has value for governments—for planning, preparation, and saving lives—and for businesses. We can offer financial incentives for them to reduce their carbon footprint by using weather to their advantage: using less fuel, less electricity, and ultimately doing what’s good for the planet and for their bottom line. That’s where our hurricane hunters will fit in.

Susan Wise: That’s amazing. I spent 20 years in South Florida, so I have hunkered down numerous times preparing for systems coming through—hurricanes, tropical storms, all of that. The more notice and the more accurate we can get, the better. That’s amazing.

Dan Harkins: Yeah, for sure. Florida—anywhere in the Caribbean really—is a main place where we want to help. Our revisit rate is quite high, as well as our resolution. Every two and a half hours we’ll be able to improve the forecast.

We have a unique modeling system that we use. Places like Miami—Miami is just right there on the edge of the ocean—so early warning really helps protect infrastructure, get assets in place, and get people out of harm’s way earlier. And the right people. The strange thing about weather, especially hurricanes, is there’s such a psychological component. If you’re not accurate, people think, “Well, there’s a 10% chance it won’t hit us, so maybe I don’t have to evacuate.” So we really want to remove that uncertainty with more accurate, more reliable forecasts.

Susan Wise: Absolutely. When I lived there, I remember: you have certain television stations you follow. One is all panic and crying wolf, and another is more laid back about it. What you want is accurate, dependable information. That’s awesome that you’re working on this. What else are you working on that affects the space industry?

Dan Harkins: I think where we’ll affect the space industry is as a commercial case. We’re going from such a research base with a long lifecycle. When this first started, we were building a very large satellite—a 2,000-kilogram satellite. Now we can show the commercial space industry that technology has advanced to the point where we can get smaller. And certainly, leveraging our launch provider, the goal is to have a cadence of getting small satellites to space faster and cheaper. It’ll be one more option for getting there.

So that’s where we’ll contribute: the practical and commercial side of the small-satellite industry. Yes, we want to save lives, but we are a business. Showing off these test cases will be really helpful, because we’re mindful of our markets and of the companies coming up in the space industry.

I have this model: “We have more data and we have better data”—but applying that data is the key. Nobody beats a path to your door just because you build a better mousetrap. You have to show them how the mousetrap works and how it helps them. A lot of people don’t even know they have mice. When you show them that—and how it commercially works—that’s where we help the industry.

Susan Wise: Let me ask you this: would this take the place of hurricane hunters flying into systems, or would it go hand in hand? I know it’s dangerous when they do that.

Dan Harkins: Yeah. I’ve actually been angling to get on one of those flights. I know people who have flown on them, and I’d love to go up. We are a complementary measurement to the aircraft. The aircraft can’t reach the cloud-top altitudes, and they drop sondes from the middle of the storm. So we are definitely complementary—but the U.S. is the only country with a fleet of hurricane hunter aircraft. Some countries use military planes, but overall they don’t have NOAA’s capability.

So for those countries, we are a substitute—and a much cheaper one. The hurricane hunter aircraft cost between $250 and $300 million a year to run and maintain. For a fraction of that, we can provide hurricane forecasts and those observations every two and a half hours, at about one-hundredth the cost.

Susan Wise: When it comes to Tropical Weather Analytics—your company—tell us about one of your “aha” moments.

Dan Harkins: My aha moment was when I was on the other side. I wanted to build satellites—I came from satellite manufacturing. When this project came across my desk, I thought, “Good luck.” A lot of companies try to do weather, and weather is a tough game commercially because people think, “I get weather for free.”

Yes, we do—but we rely on billions of dollars in government assets that we all paid for to get that “free” weather.

My aha moment was understanding the modeling—how this reduces errors inherent in current models, and the unique features we’re providing. Then it became super interesting. Meteorologists told us, “Hurricanes are nice, but 3D wind data is something we’ve been after forever.” That improves weather models dramatically. That was a big aha moment.

Another aha moment was realizing the real-world business case: we can save companies a lot of money. They want to reduce emissions—emissions cost money. Aviation wants to reduce fuel per flight. Shipping wants to reduce fuel per voyage. Our satellites fit perfectly. That’s the part that really excites me: hearing from those industries how we help.

Susan Wise: I think back to Hurricane Andrew. I remember it was headed to one place, and then at the last minute it changed and caught a lot of people off guard. The trajectory is a best guess—you have that cone of uncertainty. The more we can narrow that and have up-to-date information, the better. What has been one of your biggest challenges, and how did you overcome it?

Dan Harkins: The biggest challenge was when we pivoted to commercial. We were doing great with funding and with our work on the Space Station. But when we decided to commercialize, the appetite for space went down a bit.

And explaining to people how you make money off weather is tricky. Even commercial weather companies struggle with that argument. If weather is free, how do you add enough value to justify cost?

So the communication—showing how we help and why it’s commercially viable—has been the most difficult part. Getting that extra funding to get us to space has definitely been the biggest challenge.

Susan Wise: Gotta get the word out there and help people realize what we have here. Do you have any advice you’d like to share with our listeners?

Dan Harkins: It depends on the listener’s passion. There’s that old saying: “If you love what you do, you’ll never work a day in your life.” I don’t think it’s about finding your passion necessarily—because someone’s passion might not be economically viable. But certainly pursue your interests. That’s what’s fulfilling.

Like you mentioned Andrew—one thing I love about weather and space is the bizarre connections you uncover. For example, there’s a rumor that Hurricane Andrew released lionfish from an aquarium, contributing to Florida’s invasive-species problem. It’s not 100% true, but there is some truth. Climate change and warming waters contribute too, and hurricanes drive currents that move invasive species.

It’s all interconnected. So my advice: pursue what you’re curious about. You’ll find interesting connections that can become a business, help your business, or help your career.

Susan Wise: What about a passion project—past or present—that you’d like to mention?

Dan Harkins: This is a thousand percent my passion project. I did the TV thing once—that didn’t work out. I made a terrible TV pilot. I’ve done some writing and film. But spaceships and weather—that’s my forte. Those are my passions.

Susan Wise: If someone wanted to reach out to you for weather support or more information, how would they do that?

Dan Harkins: LinkedIn—Dan Harkins. I’m the only one who makes spaceships and “controls” the weather, so I’m easy to find. And WeatherSats.com is our website—we’re always accessible there if you want to talk to our science team or to me.

Susan Wise: I think what you’re doing is fantastic. It’s important, it’s a must. These things have to happen. Saving lives and saving money—for businesses and for people—this is important work. Thank you so much for coming on and sharing your journey with us, Dan. We appreciate talking to you today.

Dan Harkins: Thank you so much. I really appreciate the opportunity to talk about our mission.

Susan Wise: Make sure you join us where we connect, collaborate, and accelerate. If you enjoyed this episode, leave us a review and subscribe.
Until next time, keep looking up.